The construction industry has always been a reflection of the wider world. It rises and falls with global economic tides, adapts to policy shifts, and absorbs the shocks of geopolitical volatility. But according to Currie & Brown’s latest Construction Certainty Index 2025, the “new normal” is relentless uncertainty.
Surveying more than 1,000 decision-makers worldwide – each managing construction pipelines averaging $12.9 billion – the consultancy finds that the sector is grappling with levels of unpredictability not seen in decades. In just the last 12 months, respondents reported that:
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32% of projects were descoped
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29% delayed
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25% cancelled
Perhaps most striking is that only one in five leaders (20%) said they felt completely confident about delivering projects within budget in today’s environment. For an industry that depends on tight margins, predictable schedules, and reliable financing, that is a sobering statistic.
The Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, reflects this tension acutely. On one hand, governments are pushing ahead with unprecedented giga-projects – from Saudi Arabia’s NEOM and Diriyah Gate to the UAE’s massive infrastructure buildout for COP28 legacy initiatives. On the other, these projects exist in the same uncertain ecosystem as the rest of the globe: subject to material price swings, skilled labour shortages, and political risk.
The Cost of Uncertainty
Currie & Brown’s headline finding is stark: the average construction organisation lost 13.7% of its pipeline value last year to uncertainty. That equates to $2.1 billion per organisation. Scaled up across global construction, the figure becomes $2.5 trillion – a number larger than Italy’s GDP and nearly double the combined annual revenues of Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.
For governments and clients, the implications are profound. Each lost billion represents cancelled hospitals, schools that will not be built, infrastructure delayed, and private investments shelved. The knock-on effects ripple into employment, housing supply, healthcare access, and economic competitiveness.
In the Gulf, this level of attrition could undermine ambitious strategic goals such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 or the UAE’s Net Zero 2050 pathway. If mega-projects fail to stay on track, they risk not only financial overruns but reputational harm to nations marketing themselves as global investment hubs.
The Technology Paradox
Technology should, in theory, provide relief from uncertainty. Tools such as digital twins, predictive modelling, AI-driven scheduling, and Building Information Modelling (BIM) are all designed to reduce risk. Yet, as the report highlights, adoption has created a “technology paradox.”
While digital tools are widespread, many firms admit they are not extracting real value from them. Technology investment is often fragmented, underutilised, or poorly integrated into wider project strategies. As a result, leaders face the frustrating reality that despite digitisation efforts, unpredictability persists.
This resonates strongly in the Middle East, where smart city initiatives and government mandates have driven rapid adoption of BIM and project monitoring tools. But the benefits are not automatic. Unless the technology is embedded into workflows, training, and decision-making, it risks being little more than a box-ticking exercise.
Currie & Brown argues that technology must be aligned with business objectives and properly resourced – not simply acquired for the sake of innovation. The paradox will only be resolved when digital solutions move from experimental add-ons to core strategic drivers of certainty.
The Power of Data
If technology is the engine, data is the fuel. The report underlines how advanced analytics can transform construction delivery – from forecasting material costs and labour demand to modelling risk scenarios. But, once again, the challenge is execution.
Most leaders surveyed acknowledge they are not using data effectively. Silos, inconsistent standards, and a lack of confidence in accuracy mean organisations often rely on gut feel rather than hard evidence. This reliance leaves them vulnerable when volatility strikes.
In a Middle East context, the potential of data is enormous. Governments are investing heavily in digital infrastructure, and many giga-projects are designed from inception to be “data-rich” environments. If leveraged correctly, this can give Gulf developers a rare advantage: the ability to make decisions based on real-time, high-quality insights. But the gulf between potential and practice remains wide.
People and Collaboration
The report is equally clear that technology and data cannot deliver certainty alone. Construction is a people business, and the industry faces acute shortages in skills and labour. This is not just about numbers on site, but about the capacity for collaboration, innovation, and leadership across the supply chain.
A quarter of survey respondents highlighted labour as a primary risk factor. Shortages push up costs, slow delivery, and erode margins. At the same time, collaboration across project teams is often undermined by contractual disputes, misaligned incentives, and fragmented communication.
Currie & Brown calls for a cultural shift: one where trust, partnership, and long-term relationships are valued as much as technical expertise. The Middle East – with its reliance on multinational joint ventures and complex contractor ecosystems – is particularly in need of such an approach. Vision 2030 projects, for example, demand cooperation between hundreds of firms, suppliers, and government stakeholders. Without collaboration, certainty will remain elusive.
What Must Change
The report is not all doom and gloom. It sets out a roadmap for building certainty in uncertain times:
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Align technology with strategy – Ensure digital investments are linked to measurable business outcomes.
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Invest in data confidence – Build systems that guarantee accuracy, consistency, and accessibility of information.
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Rebalance risk – Shift contracts away from adversarial models towards frameworks that share risk fairly.
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Prioritise people – Develop the skills pipeline, foster leadership, and reward collaboration.
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Focus on resilience – Build flexibility into project planning to withstand shocks from inflation, supply chains, or geopolitics.
For Middle Eastern clients and contractors, these recommendations are timely. The region’s mega-projects are high profile, high stakes, and heavily scrutinised. Implementing these measures could help ensure that delivery matches ambition.
Conclusion: Certainty as the New Currency
In an industry that builds cities, economies, and futures, certainty has become the most valuable currency. As Currie & Brown’s Construction Certainty Index 2025 makes clear, the absence of certainty is costing the world trillions. But by tackling the paradoxes of technology, the misuse of data, the scarcity of people, and the culture of adversarial contracting, construction can regain control of its destiny.
For the Middle East, where construction is not only an economic pillar but a national symbol, the stakes are especially high. The next decade will test whether the region can deliver its vast visions despite global turbulence. Certainty, as Currie & Brown argue, will be the decisive factor.
